A Lucas Plan for the Twenty First Century

The UK has a sprawling military industry, supported by the sixth largest military budget in the world, direct state subsidies and arms sales to export customers.  

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) plans to spend a further £288.6 billion on military equipment and services over the next ten years and has admitted that it is already £16.9 billion over budget. Instead of persuading the public that an expansive set of military industrial programmes are necessary, this spending is often justified in economic terms. The Defence Secretary John Healey claimed in July 2024 that jobs in the military industry produce unique economic benefits and has sought to turn the MOD into an “economic department”.  

As this interactive map of aerospace and shipbuilding in the north west of England, the central belt of Scotland and Northern Ireland shows, military sites are often important sources of employment for their local areas. However, these jobs are not inherently secure: between 1980 and 2022, more than half of jobs in the UK’s military industry were lost even though military spending remained consistent when adjusted for CPI. Over this period, military production has become more capital intensive while manufacturing roles have been cut and unionisation diminished.

The jobs that remain in the military industry are not produced by a unique economic dynamism; instead they are supported by public investment in the procurement of weapons and direct subsidies for research and development (R&D). Between 1987 and 2009, one third of the UK’s public R&D funding went to the military sector. In 2022, BAE Systems, the MOD’s leading supplier, paid for just 14 per cent of its own R&D costs. The state support on offer for military production is rarely extended to civilian sectors.

As shown by Common Wealth’s new report, “A Lucas Plan for the Twenty First Century: From Asset Manager Arsenal to Green Industrial Strategy”, there are alternative futures for military industrial sites and for the public investment directed towards them. Common Wealth conducted interviews with 21 military workers and trade unionists that demonstrated how the productive capacity and skills within the UK’s military industrial base can be redirected towards addressing the climate crisis. This can build on the legacy of the Lucas Plan — the most famous example of a labour struggle for industrial conversion from military to civilian production — through the use of public ownership to transition production into emerging green industries.

This interactive map illustrates major aerospace and shipbuilding sites in two military industrial heartlands  — the north west of England and central belt of Scotland — as well as Northern Ireland where the future of military manufacturing is more fragile. The map identifies sites where military companies already produce civilian products and where they have made limited moves to expand towards green industries without a comprehensive transition. The map’s three case studies — the Rosyth Naval dockyard, BAE Systems on the Clyde and Leonardo’s aerospace facility in Edinburgh — indicate that a deeper transition is technologically viable, and that state coordination can repurpose military production towards green sectors.  

All names used below have been changed and all quotes are for illustration, they are not matched to the case study sites but demonstrate the wider potential of a transition within the sector.

The map draws upon Richard Reeve, Database of UK military aerospace industry, unpublished, 2022 as well as research assistance from Aylen Genero.

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