Electric Vehicle Transition Methodological Note
The above table details the potential growth in automotive jobs in the UK that would be possible with a worker-led, green transition of the sector. This methodological note breaks down the considerations that led to the development of the figures above.
The highlighted cells (80 GWh/a, 204 300 jobs in total, 33 200 job increase by 2030) are based on estimates generated by Public First modelling in collaboration with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)1. These numbers cover an ‘optimistic scenario’ for the future of the automotive industry where 80 GWh/a would be produced in the UK and 40 000 new jobs would be added to the sector by 2030. In our analysis, we make assumptions which are further developed in future research where we outline how leveraging of public investment to foster collaboration between car manufacturers in sharing gigafactory sites, as well as employing a larger mobility justice lens would contribute to the growth in the table above.
In our table, the first two columns include the regions of the UK in ascending order based on most recent levels of employment in the automotive sector (provided from 2018 ONS data).
The third column covers the amount of gigawatt hours per year (GWh/a) we estimate to be generated by lithium-ion batteries produced in those regions by 2030. Five regions have been selected, with varying GWh/a capacities, based on realistic modelling. The region with the highest capacity, the North East, would produce 25 GWh/a by 2030, given that two gigafactories are currently being constructed in the region (Nissan-Envision plant in Sunderland2, Lotus-Britishvolt plant in the Blyth Valley3) with capacities at completion in the mid-2030s of 38 and 30 GWh/a, respectively. We conservatively estimate that by the year 2030, these two gigafactories will produce a collective GWh/a capacity of 25.
The second largest region by capacity would be the West Midlands, where the Coventry Airport has been given a green light to service surrounding automotive manufacturers. The gigafactory site is expected to be operational from 2025, with a maximum capacity of 60GWh/a4 over coming years. It is therefore a conservative estimate that the manufacturing capacity will be at a third of its full potential by 2030 and therefore, the West Midlands is assigned a GWh/a capacity of 20.
The following regions (East Midlands, North West and South West) were chosen as regions with strong factors indicating a capacity or need for a gigafactory. In the East Midlands, the advent of the Viking Link Interconnector from Denmark to Lincolnshire would provide the area with access to cheaper energy, which is needed in the electric vehicle manufacturing process. Access to cheap and renewable power sources was one of the primary reasons cited by Britishvolt when the North East was selected for their gigafactory site over South Wales5. We also anticipate that both the North West and South East will be probable sites for gigafactory manufacturing due to their respective pre-existing industrial capacities and the expression of interest from notable companies in the regions, such as BMW (which has already confirmed Cowley in the South East as the production site for the Mini E with batteries imported from Germany6) and Bentley (which has heavily invested in electrifying its plant in Crewe in the North West7). For these reasons, we estimate a 15 GWh/a capacity for the East Midlands and 10 GWh/a capacities for both the North West and the South East by 2030.
For the fourth column, we estimate the number of jobs that would be added directly through roll out of gigafactories as directly correlated to the number of GWh/a that each region would produce by 2030. Based on UK estimates from the three most developed sites (Nissan-Envision in Sunderland, Lotus-Britishvolt in the Blyth Valley, Coventry Airport), there would be 15 000 jobs created at a full capacity of 128 GWh/a, which averages to 117.19 jobs created per GWh/a produced. We applied a rounded 125 jobs per GWh/a to our analysis for simplicity purposes. The fifth column (Prospective Jobs (2030)) sums the existing jobs with the new jobs created through gigafactories.
In the sixth column (Growth Rate), we estimate there will be two distinct growth rates in regions with or without gigafactories. Regions with gigafactories would see a heightened growth rate in employment of 14% due to the provision of lithium-ion battery manufacturing providing security to car plants in the region and ensuring their future beyond the 2035 ICE and hybrid ban. Securing access to batteries for electric vehicles could potentially allow new car manufacturers into the region as well, contributing to the growth rate and representing a cascading effect. Other, non-gigafactory regions would see a depressed growth rate compared to gigafactory regions in terms of employment. However, these jobs would be secured and extended through roll-out of hydrogen fuel cell manufacturing. This would secure jobs for the 8 500 workers employed in engine production sites in the UK to take part in the green transition and to construct larger, mass modes of transport (like lorries, buses and rail units) where the technology for lithium-ion batteries is not yet developed enough for long-distance journeys. The 14%/10% growth numbers were deliberated after consideration of growth in automotive jobs in the UK from 2008 to 2018 of 18.6%8, even at a time of de-industrialisation and decline in the automotive sector in other developed settings. For this reason, we believe 10-14% growth are conservative estimates.
The final two columns reflect the total and net numbers of jobs that a green transition could add to the UK labour market. With an addition of 33 200 jobs and increasing the lithium-ion battery production capacity to 80 GWh/a would result in a total of 204 300 jobs in the automotive sector in the UK by 2030.
Investment
Based on figures that have been published of the amount of investment and the jobs secured or created in electrifying the automotive sector in the UK thus far, a total of roughly £12bn has been invested to secure 24 500 jobs by 2030. If we use the factor that the employment number will grow by (8.37) and multiply it by the current level of investment, we estimate that a total of £100bn is required for the green transition to secure and expand to an employment figure of 205 000 jobs by 2030. For these reasons, £12.6bn would need to be committed annually to guarantee a transition in time for 2030. Given the turnover of the industry was £77.8bn in 2018 alone, we believe £12.6bn (or 16% of turnover) is a realistic investment9. This would mean investing roughly £500 000 per job created or secured.